Friday, November 11, 2016

How to Become President (aka "Machiavelli, The Sequel")

In the aftermath of Donald Trump being elected President of the United States, I reflected on the things that matter and don't matter when trying to become President.  I looked at this election, and looked back at past (post-Nixon) elections, and tried to figure out an explanation for how the US voted.  Here is my take.

Things That Matter:

Warm and Fuzzy and "Authentic" - This is the most important characteristic.  Ideally, people will like you, or at least your public persona.  But what is most essential is that you not be seen as cold and remote and overly scripted.  If you are, people will feel like you are hiding something, that you are not sincere, and you are just saying what the polls and focus groups tell you that you should say.  You are not being "real."

This coolness and distance was the kiss of death for Gore, Romney and Hillary Clinton.  People would say how warm and friendly they were in private, in one-on-one conversations, but it did not come across in public.  The most successful candidates - Reagan, Bill Clinton, Obama, Bush 2 - came across as warm and friendly even in front of thousands of people and a scrum of journalists.  And the best of them managed to combine that warmth with a sense of dignity at the same time - not an easy feat.

Trump did not have that warmth, but his radically unfiltered speech (and tweets) gave a feeling of authenticity - he is saying what he really means (even if 80% of it is bullshit).  Not perfect, but viscerally more appealing to voters than Hillary Clinton's uber preparation and control.

Team Spirit - People like to belong to a group, to root for a team (and against the other team).  The political parties tap into this.  "I'm a Democrat/Republican, so I will vote for the Democrat/Republican."  Clinton got a lot of votes because she was the nominee of the Democratic Party, so loyal Democrats voted for her.  Trump likewise got votes from loyal Republicans because he was the Republican nominee.  For team voters, their character or positions do not matter (although Trump in particular had some defectors due to his departures from the team's traditional positions).  I was an Oakland Raiders fan in the 1970's - they would play dirty, but I didn't care (and maybe even relished it) because they were my team.  This is one reason why third parties struggle, even when they field good candidates.  In recent years the Republicans have cultivated team spirit better than the Democrats, and that helped Trump.

There is a second way this plays out, especially in the party primaries, where everyone is on your political party team.  And that is if you feel that the candidate is speaking for you, or cares about you, then you become part of their team.  This is why Sanders and Trump did so well - they did the best job of picking up on the dissatisfaction of their respective parties' voters.

Hope for the Future - Unless everybody is really happy, they want to know that you will make things better.  Promising the status quo is not appealing if people are unhappy with the status quo.  This was another Hillary Clinton failure; she basically promised more of the same, but unless you are a tech millionaire or a Wall Street banker or other member of the super-privileged, odds are that you are not happy with more of the same.  For most of us, job security and real wages have gone down, while the cost of living and the cost of economic and social advancement (a college degree) have gone up.  We are not happy with the status quo, and Hillary Clinton basically promised no hope of change.

Obama pulled this one off brilliantly, with his "Hope" poster and his eloquent and inspiring speeches, and the excitement of being the first African-American President.  And he had the benefit of following Bush 2, with the disastrous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the crash of the entire economy.  People were absolutely ready for a change, and he promised a better, brighter future.  By comparison, Carter did well with this as a candidate, but as President he largely failed (by being somewhat of a downer), and Reagan capitalized on that with an optimistic tone promising change.

Trump likewise promises change - "make America great again," whatever that means.  While it can be understood to have potentially negative connotations, by itself it is a promise of change for the better.  Trump's vitriolic attacks on anyone who criticized or opposed him diluted this message, but there was no question he was going to shake things up - whatever else he did, things were going to be different.  And hey, this frying pan sucks, so maybe I'll try the fire. Again, advantage Trump.

An Effective Campaign -  In addition to these factors, there is a basic prerequisite to winning, which is to have an effective campaign.  If you don't have that, you will likely lose at some point, often in the primary election. In addition to their other problems, Gore and Kerry and Dole were also harmed by this. (Although Dole may not have even been trying that hard.) But as Obama and especially Trump and to some extent Sanders showed, there is more than one way to run an effective campaign.

Things That Don't Matter:

Experience - Look at all the more experienced candidates who lost to less experienced ones: Carter beat Ford, Reagan beat Carter, Clinton beat Bush 1, Bush 2 beat Gore, Obama beat Hillary Clinton and McCain, and now the most extreme example, Trump beat all the other Republican candidates and Hillary Clinton.  Johnson and Weld had significantly more experience than Trump, but got only a tiny sliver of the votes. Experience does not appear to matter in any significant way.  Hillary Clinton's heavy emphasis on her experience was misplaced.

Courage and Toughness - Combat veterans have not done well - Gerald Ford and Bush 1 did not get reelected, and Bob Dole, John McCain and John Kerry all failed in their election bids to candidates who had not experienced such (literal) trial by fire.  Kerry also showed courage in his anti-war activities and his investigation of the BCCI scandal. Hillary Clinton went through the Whitewater and Monica Lewinsky scandals, and was Secretary of State while the Middle East was melting down, only to lose to a spoiled rich brat whose idea of hardship was getting only a $1 million loan from his father.  Proven courage and toughness? Doesn't matter.

Policy - This one is hard for me, because this is the primary basis for how I vote, but for the majority of voters this appears to be secondary at best. Otherwise it is hard to explain the oscillations of position on things like protecting the environment and reproductive rights, where we swing back and forth between Carter and Reagan, and Clinton to Bush 2 to Obama to Trump.  Voters may choose their party team based on policies and issues, but will then stick with that team's candidate even if he or she folds or switches positions on the issues, like Bill Clinton on welfare reform or Obama on shutting down Guantanamo or his "all of the above" energy policy.  Team identity comes first.

Ethics - In the post-Nixon era, the President of each party that was generally considered to be the most ethical - Ford and Carter - did not get re-elected. Bill Clinton was already known as "Slick Willy" when he was elected (and then re-elected). In some situations, especially the primaries, ethics may matter, as a candidate may be perceived as too tainted to successfully represent the team (because the other team will happily point out ethical failings).  But again, once past the primaries, team identity and warm-and-fuzzy are more important - if you like a candidate and they are on your team, you will vote for them despite their ethical failings.  Trump is ethically challenged, but he won anyway.

Conclusion:

I am not saying that everyone bases their vote on these criteria - there are voters who vote based on policies and issues (economics, environment, abortion, gay rights), or for whom the ethics of the candidate are most important, but they are in the minority.  Nor am I saying that I endorse or agree with these criteria - like Machiavelli (who has unfairly gotten a bad name), I am just observing that I think these factors are the most important ones in the US for electing the President.

My bottom line? I think we may not be doing this the best way...

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